Introduction to Commodities Investing

Module 5. Discover the Opportunities

Learning Objectives:

1. Identify trusted sources of commodity market information.

2. Understand what types of data and trends to focus on when researching a commodity.

3. Begin forming a medium- to long-term perspective based on global supply, demand, and macroeconomic trends.

• Bonus Material: Extended Research & Specialist Sources

Introduction: Why Research Matters

Investing without research is like navigating without a map. With thousands of headlines and expert opinions swirling around online, it’s easy to get overwhelmed—or worse, misled.

If you want to develop clarity and conviction as a commodities investor, you must learn where to look for reliable information, and how to interpret what you find. This module gives you the tools to begin that process.

NB: If you haven’t already, this is the time to watch our video, Hot Commodities: Supply and Demand.

The Golden Rule: Supply and Demand Shape Everything

At the heart of every commodity price is a simple tension: supply versus demand.

• Is demand steadily growing, decreasing, expected to explode?

• Is supply constrained due to natural scarcity, regulation, underinvestment, or political risk?

• Are we heading into a surplus or shortage over the next 5-10 years?

These are the types of questions that need to be asked. By focusing on long-term supply and demand dynamics, you can begin to see where the real opportunities lie—beyond the daily noise.

Start with the Right Sources

Not all information is equal. Below is a curated list of reliable sources grouped by type. You don’t need to read everything. Just start with a few, and build from there.

News Media & Market Sentiment:

These are helpful for staying up to date with price movements, analyst opinions, and market psychology.

• Bloomberg (www.bloomberg.com)

• CNBC Commodities (www.cnbc.com/commodities)

• Financial Times Commodities (https://www.ft.com/commodities)

• Reuters Commodities (www.reuters.com/markets/commodities)
  

Data-Rich Institutions & Government Agencies:

These provide in-depth reports, forecasts, and historical trends, and are especially valuable for long-term research.

• EIA - U.S. Energy Information Administration (www.eia.gov)

• IEA - International Energy Agency (www.iea.org)

• Trading Economics (https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities)

• USDA - U.S. Department of Agriculture (www.usda.gov)
  

Specialist Providers & Industry Data:

These offer commodity-specific data or institutional-grade tools and commentary.

• cmdty Yearbook – (https://www.barchart.com/cmdty/resources/cmdty-yearbook)

• LME - London Metal Exchange (www.lme.com)

• Kitco Metals (www.kitco.com)

• World Gold Council (www.gold.org)

What to Look For

As you explore these sources, pay attention to the following:

• Production forecasts (E.g. Will oil output decline over the next decade due to lack of investment?)

• Demand trends (E.g. Is copper demand projected to rise sharply due to electric vehicles and grid upgrades?)

• Geopolitical or regulatory constraints (E.g. Could resource nationalism limit lithium exports?)

• Investment flows (E.g. Are institutions allocating more capital toward gold or agriculture?)

• Inventories and stockpiles (E.g. Are inventories low? Are strategic reserves being drawn down?)

As you grow familiar with this data, you’ll learn to connect key developments—like supply constraints, demand surges, or geopolitical shifts—with their likely impact on pricing, volatility, and investor positioning.

Tips to Get You Started

• Start with one commodity. Focus on building depth of understanding before branching out.

• Track changes over time. Bookmark key reports and revisit them quarterly.

• Compare viewpoints. Note where experts agree and where they diverge.

• Always ask why. If a commodity is in a bull or bear market, what are the structural reasons?

Take Action

Continuing with your commodity of choice:

1) Review at least 3 sources from different categories above. As you read, ask:

• What are the supply and demand fundamentals?

• Is there a long-term shortage or surplus emerging?

• What risks might affect this outlook?

2) Write a brief summary (3-5 bullet points) of what you've learned.

It doesn’t need to be perfect—the goal is to begin forming a clear, independent view. Ultimately, the guideline for what you’re looking for is simple: supply and demand over the next 10 years.

Effective research takes time, but it is one of the most valuable skills an investor can develop. It helps you identify real opportunities and make clear, confident decisions in uncertain market conditions.